Market report · September 2026Flat
BayernGermany

Bayern residential real estate market report for September 2026. Nationally, house prices in Germany were edging up, up 1.4% from a year earlier in Q1 2026 (+0.3% quarter on quarter). Annual growth is slowing compared with the previous quarter. The European Central Bank’s policy rate stood at 2.25% in August 2026, up from 2.00% a year earlier.

September 2026 at a Glance

House prices · Germany
+1.4% YoY
+0.3% QoQ · Q1 2026
Momentum
Slowing
+1.4% now vs +2.6% a quarter earlier
Policy rate
2.25%
Rising over 12 months · August 2026
New mortgage rate
3.93%
3.68% a year earlier · July 2026

House Prices and Trends

No free, official monthly price series is published for Bayern specifically, so this section uses the national index for Germany as the reference; local asking-price movements typically follow the national direction with a lag of one to two quarters.

The national house price index for Germany rose 1.4% year on year in Q1 2026 and was +0.3% against the previous quarter, according to Eurostat, House price index (prc_hpi_q). A year earlier the annual rate was +3.8%, so growth has cooled over twelve months. The latest quarter shows annual growth decelerating from its previous reading — a sign that the upswing is maturing.

Quarter Prices YoY Prices QoQ
Q4 2024 +1.9% +0.1%
Q1 2025 +3.8% +1.4%
Q2 2025 +3.3% +0.9%
Q3 2025 +3.2% +0.7%
Q4 2025 +2.6% -0.5%
Q1 2026 +1.4% +0.3%

House price index, % change year on yearQ2 2024-2.5%Q3 2024-0.2%Q4 2024+1.9%Q1 2025+3.8%Q2 2025+3.3%Q3 2025+3.2%Q4 2025+2.6%Q1 2026+1.4%

Financing and Interest Rates

The European Central Bank’s policy rate was 2.25% in August 2026 (BIS, Central bank policy rates). Rates are 0.25 points higher than a year ago, which raises the cost of borrowing and tends to cool price growth with a lag of two to four quarters. The average rate on new mortgages to households in Germany was 3.93% in July 2026 (ECB, Bank interest rates — loans to households for house purchase (MIR)), compared with 3.68% a year earlier.

Bayern in the News

Reading the Trend

Flat

Prices in Bayern are essentially flat in nominal terms — which, after inflation, means slightly falling in real terms. Buyers have more time and more leverage than a year ago.

What to watch next month

  • The next quarterly release of the house price index for Germany (Q1 2026 is the latest) — whether annual growth keeps slowing.
  • Upcoming decisions by the European Central Bank — any move from 2.25% feeds through to mortgage pricing within weeks.

What This Means for Buyers, Sellers and Investors

Buyers

Time is on your side — offers below asking are normal in a flat market, especially on stock listed for more than 90 days.

Sellers

The first two weeks on the market matter most — price to the last comparable sale, not the highest asking price in the street.

Investors

Rising financing costs narrow the gap between yield and mortgage rate; model returns at today's rate plus one point.

Sources

Methodology: all figures are taken directly from the free public statistical sources linked above, for the periods stated; official statistics are published with a lag, so the latest available release is used. Commentary is generated from those figures by rule and reviewed before publication. Nothing here is financial advice.

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